Market Analysis

No Bitcoin Bear Market in Sight, According to Crypto Analyst Nicholas Merten

Closely-followed crypto analyst Nicholas Merten is outlining some key signals that indicate that Bitcoin’s bull run is still in full swing, with no bear market on the horizon.

In a new strategy session, Merten posits the concept of expanding cycles or the idea that each Bitcoin bull market gets slightly longer than the last. Under the concept, the top of the current bull cycle would be theoretically further in the future than many expect.

“We’re pretty much in line with how we were performing in the same time frame for the 2017 cycle or cycle number three… The big thing I want to emphasize is whether you’re a fan of [the theory of expanding cycles] or not, historically speaking, three out of the four times from bottoms in the market, it is expected that the cycle’s going to go longer than the previous one. We can see that very very clearly. The gaps are synchronized. ..

All of the data here is pointing out a pretty obvious fact: that this is most likely – it’s not guaranteed – but it’s most likely not the end all be all of the market.”

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Source: Nicholas Merten/YouTube

Merten also points to the fact that in previous crypto bull markets, as well as traditional ones, tops of the rally usually form sharp peaks, or “blow-off tops,” as opposed to the slow, rounded pattern that Bitcoin has formed over recent months.

“In all of these cycles, we have what’s known as a blow-off top, where you notice things just go absolutely euphoric. They’re rushing and everyone’s talking about it. Everyone needs to get exposure. They’re feeling the FOMO (fear of missing out)… But this time around, it just kind of rolled over a bit, had a little bit of stagnation, kind of like some of these mid cycles or these mid-rallies and corrections within an overall bull market.” 

Merten highlights that from bottom to top, this cycle is only 122 weeks in, while the last cycle lasted roughly 152 weeks. If the theory of expanding cycles holds true, the current bull market can last for at least 30 more weeks.

“I like to buy discounts. I like to ride the broader waves and I only take profits when I’m confident we’re stepping into a bear market. Practically every major data point, every way you could be peaking at the market, as dramatic as this correction is, it doesn’t appear like a bear market.”

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